Building a probabilistic model of crowding loading Traffic in the holy province of Karbala
A letter submitted to the Council of the quantity of administration and economics at the University of Karbala
It is part of the requirements for a master’s degree in general statistics
She brought it forward by the student
Shaima Mahoud Mohammed Supervised a. Dr.. Shorouk Abdul Redha Saeed

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Abstract:

One of the axioms stemming from the actual reality is the predictive reliability of the flight time, as many people expect that their flight times do not exceed the scheduled time or that there will be a slight delay in the flight time, but what breaks this expectation is the generation of many factors and pressures that arise Its emergence abruptly in the course of the journey, at any time and without anticipating my perception of its occurrence, to negatively affect the flow and flow of traffic, which leads to traffic congestion and delay in arriving at the specified time, among these factors include the occurrence of a car breakdown, road accidents, initiation of road maintenance work The street is closed for security purposes, and the movement that swarms with it and crowds the streets on holidays, religious and national events and the weekend.

The message dealt with the importance of studying and analyzing the traffic congestion issue in the holy Karbala governorate, which is one of the governorates unique in its importance due to its ancient religious and historical stature and a large presence on community conscience, through a reliable study of the time of the trip. Three main and important streets in the governorate were selected (Fatima Al-Zahra Street, Al-Senator, Al-Iskan Street, Al-Amel Street), and then field trips were conducted for the purpose of collecting travel time data at peak and off-peak times, and with the help and reliance on statistical programs for the purpose of knowing the distribution that visualizes It has the flight time data for the three streets, where it was noticed that the data of the two study samples for Al Zahra Street (Al Senator) and Hay Al Amel Street adopted a Kochi distribution, while the data for Iskan Street took a distribution of Barr Burr). ) To distribute the truncated Cauchy, and use the methods (greatest probability, nonlinear least squares) to distribute the Burr, and then compare the

 methods of estimating the reliability of access for both distributions using the

integrative mean square error standard (IMSE). The simulation results showed the superiority of the Shrink Estimator method in estimating the reliability of access for the Kochi Amputee distribution in Fatima Al-Zahraa (Al-Senator) and Al-Amel Street, and the Maximum Possibility method outperformed the reliability of reaching the Burr distribution in Al-Iskan Street.

In order to obtain the reliability (reliability) of reaching the travel time, the estimator reduction method has been applied in estimating the reliability (reliability) of accessing the real data of the street and neighborhood of the worker, and the application of the method of estimating the greatest possibility to estimate the reliability (reliability) of accessing the real data of Al-Iskan Street, using the Matlab program, where The results showed that the reliability of arrival decreases as the flight time increases, which leads to an increase in the probability of being late arriving at the specified time.

To download the message, click the link below

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EzviBHLV3Y0Rmu1juxDhiJcfq4IWBGRn/view?usp=sharing