Measuring and analyzing food security indicators in light of  crisis( Iraq as case study)

A Thesis Submitted By

Ahmed Hassan Alwan al-Shammari

To the Board of the Faculty of Management and Economics – Karbala University, which is part of the requirements of obtaining a master’s degree in economics

Supervisor By

Prof. Dr. Mahdi S. Gailan Al-Jebouri

Abstract:

            The problem of food security is one of the problems that emerged largely globally in the 1960s and has had the effect of causing a number of problems for a number of countries, especially those that are unable to provide food for their people, Iraq suffered from economic sanctions in the 1990s from this problem, and is one of the problems affecting the various economic, social, political and security systems on the state, Because the lack of food means security, political and economic instability, so Iraq was and still is one of the countries seeking to develop a number of strategies to try to raise the level of agricultural production to reach self-sufficiency and achieve eliminated security, especially after the change of political system in Iraq after 2003 because Iraq is an agricultural country because of its human and material resources and arable land, this study is launched to measure and analyze food security indicators and a statement that the country was able to face the crises that it has It can happen and have a negative impact if appropriate strategies are not developed, In order to determine the extent to which food security in the country has been achieved and available, this study was prepared from three chapters, the first addressed the concept of food security and the concept of crises, the second dealt with an analysis of the most important indicators of food security in Iraq, while the third dealt with the measurement and analysis of the most important indicators of food security (food gap and self-sufficiency in Iraq) through the use of standard analysis models, using the self-regression model of distributed slowing (ARDL), Which is one of the standard methods advanced, and this model depends on the test of stability of time series and gives this model results on the nature of the relationship in the short term (error correction model) as well as results for the long term, the study has reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which is the existence of a long-term balance relationship as well as the short-term relationship between the food gap and self-sufficiency as well as the speed of adaptation in most models was relatively fast and therefore the imbalances that can occur will be corrected The largest proportion of them in the same year and their return to the long-term balance value.