Energy prices and their impact on the monetary sector in Iraq Analytical and econometric study  for the duration
2018-2020

Thesis submitted to the Board of the College of Administration and Economics / University of Kerbala, which is part of the requirements for obtaining a master’s degree in financial and banking sciences

Progressed by

Zaman Mohammed Abdulhussein  Al -Ramahi

Supervisor by

 A.P Hashem Jabbar AL – Husseini

Abstract

Iraq is one of the most countries in the world depending on traditional energy sources in the first place, crude oil and natural gas, and crude oil constitutes the largest percentage of 99% of Iraq’s total exports that contribute to organizing the general budget of the country, and offers excessive dependence on crude oil in the rentier countries to problems And the imbalance of the economic activity of these countries. When a decrease in energy prices occurs, this will be negatively reflected on the returns achieved by the export of energy products and thus slow and confusion in implementation, planning and preparation. Hence the relative importance of knowing the relationship of global energy prices and its impact on the Iraqi economy in general and the monetary sector in particular, which is one of the urgent necessities to know the reality and future of the Iraqi economy, depending on the degree of association and impact that the energy price fluctuations leave on the corners of the cash sector in Iraq and some of the variables . Therefore, Iraqi energy prices (crude oil – liquefied gas and gas condensate) have been adopted as an independent source of study affecting the Iraqi economic reality, the pillars of the monetary system in the Iraqi and its variables, which include (monetary offer in the broad sense, the deposits of the central government with commercial banks operating in Iraq, the index. General for the Iraq Stock Exchange, total cash credit, interest rates on savings deposits, and local investments in Iraq), which are the variables of the study that have the impact of the change in energy prices. In his study, the researcher relied on energy price data obtained by Sumo Crude Oil Marketing Company and its derivatives during the monthly period extending from 1/1/2018 to 12/31/2020, while the data of the cash sector was based on the monthly statistical bulletins of the Central Bank of Iraq – the statistical site , And it was analyzed and tested by using the statistical program (SPSS), as well as the use of the exel. And the lack of a strong impact and connection relationship depends on the explanation of the relationship of the link and the impact between energy prices and the deposits of the central government with commercial banks operating in Iraq, as the study took the need to find new alternatives that are an important resource for the Iraqi economy, not if the captive of the fluctuations of energy prices in the global market remains that happen As for the emergence of political factors and the reconciliation of private countries or irregular emergency problems that cannot be controlled, as in the Corona health crisis, in which energy prices decreased at very large levels due to the lack of demand for the supply of energy sources.