Choose the best estimate of the models of simultaneous equations 3sls-2sls with a practical application

A Thesis Submitted to
Council of  The Facuity of Administration and Economics/ Karbala
University as Partial fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Statistics

Presented by
Rabab Mustafa Jawad

Under supervision
Ass .Prof .Dr. Shrooq Abdul Reda Al-SabbahDr.Namariq Qasim Hussein

Abstract:       

  Since ancient times, economic growth has been a goal and an obsession that all countries seek to work to ,achieve and search for means and factors that would raise the rate of economic growth, given that it is a measure that expresses the extent of the increase achieved in the country’s production of various goods, and services over time, and it is also considered one of the most important overall indicators. Over the course of the country’s economic activity, which is reflected in the level of the individual’s income and well-being. Therefore, achieving high and sustainable rates of economic growth represents a central and basic goal in the economic development plans of various countries, especially developing countries. The analysis and study of a country’s economic indicators depends on data of production, income and consumption. Investment and other most common indicators to measure the volume of economic activity, as the structural model is built with simultaneous equations after determining the internal and external variables, and then the model is estimated in different ways.

In this study, light was shed on some of the methods for estimating the structural parameters of a models of simultaneous equations, which are both the two-stage linear and nonlinear least squares method, the three-stage linear and nonlinear least squares method, the two-stage linear Bayes method, and the three-stage linear and nonlinear Bayes method. In stages, the methods used were derived in order to reach their capabilities, and on the experimental side, reliance was placed on statistical standards (arithmetic mean and standard deviation of the Euclidean distance, Akaike information criterion AIC, and entropy H(e)) for methods of estimating the models of simultaneous equations assuming values For different parameters and small, medium and large sample sizes, the preference of the three-stage Bayes method in estimating simultaneous equations was reached, as it achieved the highest percentage of preference amounting to (52%) compared to the other estimation methods under study. As for the applied aspect, which was applied to real data related to descriptive analysis of variables. The economic situation in Iraq (GDP – total quantities of oil – investment – inflation rate – interest rate – income – expenditures – revenues – money supply) for the period (1990-2021), and based on the nature of the data and the characteristics of the estimators, a criterion was used to verify the stability of time series data on… By examining the properties of each of the economic variables according to the Dickey-Fuller (DAF) unit root test for the purpose of studying the variables that have a direct impact (production, exports, imports, inventory…etc.) to show the impact of these variables on the Iraqi economic models on the Iraqi economy. The study concluded that there is There is a direct relationship between GDP and expenditures, and therefore increases in GDP lead to increased expenditures.

Choose the best estimate of the models of simultaneous equations 3sls-2sls with a practical application

Presented by
Rabab Mustafa Jawad

Under supervision
Ass .Prof .Dr. Shrooq Abdul Reda Al-Sabbah
Dr.Namariq Qasim Hussein

Abstract:       

  Since ancient times, economic growth has been a goal and an obsession that all countries seek to work to ,achieve and search for means and factors that would raise the rate of economic growth, given that it is a measure that expresses the extent of the increase achieved in the country’s production of various goods, and services over time, and it is also considered one of the most important overall indicators. Over the course of the country’s economic activity, which is reflected in the level of the individual’s income and well-being. Therefore, achieving high and sustainable rates of economic growth represents a central and basic goal in the economic development plans of various countries, especially developing countries. The analysis and study of a country’s economic indicators depends on data of production, income and consumption. Investment and other most common indicators to measure the volume of economic activity, as the structural model is built with simultaneous equations after determining the internal and external variables, and then the model is estimated in different ways.

In this study, light was shed on some of the methods for estimating the structural parameters of a models of simultaneous equations, which are both the two-stage linear and nonlinear least squares method, the three-stage linear and nonlinear least squares method, the two-stage linear Bayes method, and the three-stage linear and nonlinear Bayes method. In stages, the methods used were derived in order to reach their capabilities, and on the experimental side, reliance was placed on statistical standards (arithmetic mean and standard deviation of the Euclidean distance, Akaike information criterion AIC, and entropy H(e)) for methods of estimating the models of simultaneous equations assuming values For different parameters and small, medium and large sample sizes, the preference of the three-stage Bayes method in estimating simultaneous equations was reached, as it achieved the highest percentage of preference amounting to (52%) compared to the other estimation methods under study. As for the applied aspect, which was applied to real data related to descriptive analysis of variables. The economic situation in Iraq (GDP – total quantities of oil – investment – inflation rate – interest rate – income – expenditures – revenues – money supply) for the period (1990-2021), and based on the nature of the data and the characteristics of the estimators, a criterion was used to verify the stability of time series data on… By examining the properties of each of the economic variables according to the Dickey-Fuller (DAF) unit root test for the purpose of studying the variables that have a direct impact (production, exports, imports, inventory…etc.) to show the impact of these variables on the Iraqi economic models on the Iraqi economy. The study concluded that there is There is a direct relationship between GDP and expenditures, and therefore increases in GDP lead to increased expenditures.