Analysis of the Effect of Move Factors of Exchange Rate Effect on the Price General Level by Using the Causal Model in Some Arab Countries with A Special Reference to Iraq (1990 – 2011)
By:-
ALI IMRAN HUSSEIN AL-TAEE
To:-
The Council of Faculty of Administration and Economies / University of Kufa
As Fulfillment of the Requirements for M.A in Economics
Supervised by:-
Prof . Dr . MAYIH SHABIB AL- SHAMMRI
The exchange rate is of important economic variables in terms of the external sector and the domestic sector alike, as the variable that affects the general level of prices and inflation, as well as its impact on the other variables of the total economy, and under the globalization era represented by openness and interdependence, the importance and role of the exchange rate became clear In achieving the price stability. So the problem of the research is to look for the answer upon the impact of exchange rate fluctuations and changes and the relating variables on the general level of prices and recognizing the effect and the and causal relationships of mutual between these variables, hence stems goal basic research in the measurement among these variables. Hence the study aim is to measure and analysis the effects and relation among the variables sample in the study countries (Egypt, Morocco, Iraq) for the period (1990-2011) as one of the countries that face inflationary effects as they depend the policies of liberalization and opening on the economic level.
In this research, the researcher use economic analysis approach to adopt the inductive style to measure and analyze the impact of exchange rate changes on the general price level and the quantitative style to measure the exchange relation by causality model.
The research is divided into three main chapters, the first chapter the conceptual framework for the exchange rate and the index of consumer prices and inflation , while touched second chapter to analyze the effect of exchange rate changes on changes in price levels (inflation) for the countries of the sample, were used style regression to measure the impact of the exchange rate on the general level of prices for countries sample each separately, and then we used the style of the merged data to measure the overall impact, in While we dealt with in the third quarter to the analysis of the standard model using causal states sample was standing on several conclusions, including with respect to Egypt that the impact of exchange rate changes on the general level of prices was positive and also the results of estimating regression was confirming the effect of the exchange rate on the price level, and there is a causal relationship between variables, either in Morocco, the impact of exchange rate changes on domestic prices was negative and regression results were not significant, with the existence of a causal relationship, either in Iraq, it was clear that the impact of exchange rate changes on the general level of prices is positive and the regression results were significant, and also the existence of a relationship causality between variables in the research, the results of either test the merged data where the general effect was relatively large for the exchange rate on the general level of prices in those countries. This requires the development of policies for the exchange rate in those countries in a way that affect controlling the general level of prices and the reducing of inflation rates.
