The impact of fiscal policy shocks on some macroeconomic variables – Experiences of selected economies with the possibility of benefiting from them in Iraq

A Thesis submitted by student

Miamin Talal Naji Al-Saadi

To the Board of the College of Administration and Economics – Karbala University, which is part of the requirements of obtaining a master’s degree in economic science

 Supervisor  Prof. Dr.        Munadhil Abbas Hussein Al-Jowari

Abstract

This research is an attempt to show the impact of fiscal policy shocks on some macroeconomic variables in (Algeria, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq) and to evaluate the role of this policy during the research period (2004-2020) by measuring the impact of fiscal policy shocks on some macroeconomic variables in  The mentioned countries, and this study is based on the hypothesis that the impact of fiscal policy shocks according to fiscal policy tools (government spending, taxes) on macroeconomic variables. The effective importance of fiscal policy is in influencing economic variables in the economies of developing countries, including the selected sample countries, and knowing the effective role  To financial policy shocks and their tools represented by government spending and taxes in the overall economy, as any financial shock occurs in expenditures, revenues, or other financial instruments, whose expansionary or contractionary effects are transmitted to the overall economic variables.

 The study was divided into three chapters. The first dealt with the theoretical framework of fiscal policy shocks and macroeconomic variables, while the second chapter included an analysis of fiscal policy indicators and some macroeconomic variables in the sample countries. The third chapter was devoted to measuring and analyzing the relationship between fiscal policy shocks and some macroeconomic variables.  In the sample countries, it was found that there is an inverse relationship between gross fixed capital formation and government spending in Algeria in the long term, as it is concluded that most spending is not directed to investment, nor is it in the short term, and it was otherwise in previous years, while there is a relationship  Positive and direct relationship between GDP in the United Arab Emirates, government spending, and tax revenues, in the long and short term, which indicates the direction of government spending in the UAE for investment purposes and GDP growth, and in Iraq, there is a direct relationship between GDP, government spending, and tax revenues, as well as in the long term.  Long term, and GDP as an expression of oil revenues and not as in-kind goods and services, and the research concluded with a set of appropriate conclusions and recommendations.