The implications of food security shocks on some macroeconomic indicators in the selected countries, with special reference to the shock of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as an example

To the Council of the College of Administration and Economics,
     University of Karbala, which is part of the requirements for
          obtaining a Master’s degree in Economic Sciences

Submitted By
Sodaa Muwafaq Rashid

SUPERVISING
Prof. DR. Mohammed H. Kadhim Algburi

Abstract

The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on food security in developing countries, whether directly or indirectly, and the impact of the conflict on food security indicators and some macroeconomic indicators. We discussed some of the food security indicators (local agricultural production, food production relative to population, food insecurity, Undernourishment) and macroeconomic indicators (GDP, inflation, unemployment) for the sample countries: Egypt, Tunisia, Iraq, and we discussed the analytical aspect of these indicators before the conflict shock for the period (2000-2021), and after the conflict shock for only two years. The reason for choosing the sample countries was that they consider these Countries are less developed in agriculture and agricultural production, which makes them rely heavily on grain imports and agricultural resources from Russia and Ukraine to meet their food needs. The aim of the study is the impact of the shock resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and its impact on food security in developing countries. The research problem consisted of two questions: To what extent are developing countries affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, especially with regard to their imports of foodstuffs? Does the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have any effects on food indicators in the sample countries? The research started from the hypothesis that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict constitutes a serious challenge facing global food security, especially in developing countries because It has negative effects on various economic and social aspects and will increase the problem of food security in the sample countries. However, the effects of this conflict vary from one economy to another according to the country’s economic capabilities. After analyzing the food security indicators for the sample countries, a number of conclusions were reached, including that the shock of the conflict had It affected economies, and a number of recommendations were proposed that reduce the impact of such a shock in the future.