Using the ARDL method to estimate the impact of macroeconomic policies on some economic variables in Iraq

A Thesis Submitted By
Khudhair A. Hussein AL- Waely

To The Council of Management and Economic College

University of Karbala

As Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For The
Degree of Doctor in Philosophy of Science in Economics

Supervisor By

Prof. Dr. Mahdi S. Gailan Al-Jebouri Asst. Prof. Dr. Kadhim Saad Al-Aarage

Abstract:- The Iraqi economy has experienced exceptional circumstances in the past decades of war that lasted for a long time and its results on the reality of the Iraqi economy from the depletion of economic resources as well as the reality of economic policies, followed by a severe economic siege lasted for more than a decade that affected the decline in the values of economic indicators, Under these circumstances, the state resorted to adopting the new monetary policy to finance public expenditure to meet the needs of citizens, and these policies were offset by the gross inflation and deterioration of the value of the local currency. After 2003, with the opening of the economy and the increase in oil revenues, we did not notice any changes in the reality of the Iraqi economy, but rather the deepening of the rentier nature. There were no directions of the public authorities to formulate economic policies aimed at rebuilding the economic structure and removing structural imbalances, Internal and external shocks. This study is based on the hypothesis that there is a long-term balance between macroeconomic variables and economic policy variables. In order to achieve this hypothesis, the study was divided into three chapters, The first dealt with the conceptual framework of macroeconomic policies and the second dealt with the analysis of economic variables in Iraq. The third dealt with the modeling of macroeconomic functions and economic policies. The results of the standard models were presented using the ARDL model, Which is one of the advanced standard methods, which depends on the test of stability of time series This model gives results on the nature of the relationship in the short term (error correction model) as well as long-term results. he study reached a number of conclusions, the most important of which is the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship as well as the short-term relationship between macroeconomic variables and economic policy variables, and the speed of adjustment in most models was relatively rapid. Therefore, the imbalances that can occur will be corrected. Same year and return it to long-term equilibrium value.