Using the imput-output method in measuring the effectiveness of public spending on the sectoral distribution of GDP. Iraq case study for the period 2010-2020

To the Council of the College of Administration and Economics – University of Karbala, which is part of the requirements for obtaining a master’s degree in economic sciences

Presented by Haneen Jalil Ibrahim Al-Sawaf

Supervised ByProf. Dr. Mohammed Hussein kazem Al Jubouri

This study came to shed light on the use of the input-output method as one of the methods for calculating the multiples at the level of each sector of the national economy in the Iraqi economy, during a period (2010-2020). The matrix of technical coefficients issued by the Ministry of Planning for the year 2010 was relied upon, and after extracting the composite sectoral growth coefficients, the matrix of 2020 was obtained,  After applying the input-output model in its mathematical form to the two matrices to solve them, and obtain the sectoral outputs of the economic sectors and the final demand as well as the added value, as well as we obtained the sectoral interdependencies of all kinds, direct and indirect, and through observing these sectoral interdependencies and comparison between the two years. An increase in public spending for some economic sectors for the year 2020, but their sectoral multipliers did not witness an increase, but may have led to a decrease. The reason behind this decline for these sectors in 2020 compared to 2010 is the weakness of the front and back sectoral interconnections for most economic sectors.

         The main problem of the research was the question about the belief that it is possible to rely on the input-output model in measuring the effectiveness of public spending on the sectoral distribution of GDP in the Iraqi economy during the time period 2010-2020. From this, the hypothesis was about the possibility of relying on the input-output model in measuring the effectiveness of public spending on the sectoral distribution of GDP in the economy for the period 2010-2020. Thus the aim of the research will be to answer this question and try to reach the most solutions that help in the advancement of the sectoral economy in particular and the national economy in general. One of the most important conclusions of the study is that the Iraqi government’s efforts are weak in the field of preparing input-output tables, as all tables after 1988 were individual predicted by researchers, and this weakened the work of planning agencies and studies of the economy, so it should focus on preparing tables periodically without interruption from By the central government to assist the authorities responsible for preparing economic development plans for the country.