{"id":15296,"date":"2021-12-23T18:09:50","date_gmt":"2021-12-23T15:09:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/business.uokerbala.edu.iq\/wp\/?page_id=15296"},"modified":"2021-12-23T18:12:09","modified_gmt":"2021-12-23T15:12:09","slug":"%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%af%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%8a%d8%b2%d9%8a-%d9%84%d8%af%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%82%d8%a7%d8%a1-%d9%84%d8%aa%d9%88%d8%b2%d9%8a%d8%b9-%d9%84%d9%8a","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/business.uokerbala.edu.iq\/wp\/%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%af%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%8a%d8%b2%d9%8a-%d9%84%d8%af%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%82%d8%a7%d8%a1-%d9%84%d8%aa%d9%88%d8%b2%d9%8a%d8%b9-%d9%84%d9%8a","title":{"rendered":"\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0632\u064a \u0644\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0642\u0627\u0621 \u0644\u062a\u0648\u0632\u064a\u0639 \u0644\u064a\u0646\u062f\u0644\u064a \u0630\u0648 \u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0632\u064a \u0644\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0642\u0627\u0621 \u0644\u062a\u0648\u0632\u064a\u0639 \u0644\u064a\u0646\u062f\u0644\u064a \u0630\u0648 \u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0645\u0639 \u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0631\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0640\u0640\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u062c\u0644\u0633 \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0641\u064a \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0643\u0631\u0628\u0644\u0627\u0621<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0648\u0647\u064a \u062c\u0632\u0621 \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u062a\u0637\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0646\u064a\u0644 \u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062c\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u062a\u0642\u062f\u0645 \u0628\u0647\u0640\u0627<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0643\u0631\u0645 \u0646\u0627\u0635\u0631 \u062d\u0633\u064a\u0646\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0628\u0625\u0634\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0631\u0627\u0641\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0623.\u062f \u0639\u0648\u0627\u062f \u0643\u0627\u0638\u0645 \u0634\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0646<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u062a\u0639\u062f \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0642\u0627\u0621 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0647\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0631\u0643\u0632\u062a \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u0648\u062b \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0623\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u062a\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641 \u0628\u0623\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0633\u0648\u0627\u0621 \u0623\u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0628 \u062a\u0642\u0644\u064a\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0645 \u0628\u064a\u0632\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0647\u062f\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0639\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0641\u0627\u0621\u0629.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631\u0643\u064a\u0632 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0632\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0623\u064a\u062c\u0627\u062f \u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629 \u0628\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0642\u0627\u0621 \u0648\u0628\u0639\u0636 \u0644\u062a\u0648\u0632\u064a\u0639 \u0644\u064a\u0646\u062f\u0644\u064a  \u0630\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u062d\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u0648\u0627\u0641\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0623\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629\u0623\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0643\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u062a\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0648\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633 \u0628\u0623\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b\u0629 \u0637\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0642 \u0628\u064a\u0632\u064a\u0629 \u060c \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0643\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a\u064a\u0629 (<\/strong>Standard Bayes method) \u0648 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0632\u064a (<\/strong>Expected Bayesian method) \u0648\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0647\u0631\u0645\u064a<\/strong> (Hierarchical Bayesian <\/strong>method) \u060c\u0623\u0630  \u062a\u0645 \u0623\u0634\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0642  \u0637\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0628\u063a\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0635\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0635\u064a\u063a \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0623\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0645\u0627\u0644   \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u062a\u0631\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a\u0629<\/strong>(Squared Error Loss Function) \u0645\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062b\u0644\u0629 \u0648\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0631\u0648\u0628\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629(<\/strong>General Entropy Loss Function )\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062b\u0644\u0629 \u0648\u0628\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0635\u0639\u0648\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629 \u0628\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0642\u0627\u0621 \u0628\u0623\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0645\u0627\u0644   \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0632\u064a\u0629  \u0641\u0642\u062f \u062a\u0645 \u0623\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0631\u064a\u0628\u064a  \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0623\u0642\u062a\u0631\u062d\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062d\u062b <\/strong>(Lindley)  \u0639\u0627\u0645<\/strong> \u06451980.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u062a\u0645 \u062a\u0648\u0638\u064a\u0641 \u0623\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0627\u0643\u0627\u0629 \u0628\u0623\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u00a0 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 (\u0645\u0648\u0646\u062a \u2013 \u0643\u0627\u0631\u0644\u0648) \u0644\u062a\u0648\u0644\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0645\u0643\u0648\u0646\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0645\u0633\u0629 \u0623\u062d\u062c\u0627\u0645 \u00a0 <\/strong>(10-25-50-75-100) \u062a\u062a\u0628\u0639 \u062a\u0648\u0632\u064a\u0639 \u0644\u064a\u0646\u062f\u0644\u064a \u0630\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0643\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u062a\u0645 \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0623\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a<\/strong>\u03b1,\u03b2,\u03b8 \u0628\u0648\u0627\u0642\u0639 \u062a\u0633\u0639\u0629 \u0623\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0647\u062f\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a \u062c\u062f\u064a\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u0630\u0627\u062a \u062f\u0642\u0629 \u0639\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u062d\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0637\u0644\u0648\u0628 \u062a\u0648\u0641\u0631\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062b\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u064a\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631\u060c \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0627\u0643\u0627\u0629 \u0648\u0628\u0623\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0645\u0627\u0644\u00a0 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0623 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644\u064a\u00a0 <\/strong>(IMSE) \u00a0\u0643\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0641\u0627\u0636\u0644\u0629 \u0638\u0647\u0631\u062a \u0627\u0641\u0636\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u00a0 \u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0628\u064a\u0632 \u0641\u064a \u0638\u0644 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0631\u0648\u0628\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u062d\u062c\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0629\u00a0 \u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0642\u0627\u0621\u00a0 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0637\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649 .\u0625\u062c\u0631\u064a\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u062d\u062c\u0645 (<\/strong>50) \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0647\u062f\u0629 \u062a\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0623\u0648\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0642\u0627\u0621 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0639\u0627\u062a \u062a\u062d\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u062c \u0644\u062d\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0641\u0627\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0627\u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0628\u0645\u0631\u0636 \u0641\u0627\u064a\u0631\u0648\u0633 (<\/strong>(C\u039fVD-19 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0642\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0645\u064c\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0634\u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0645\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0645\u062d\u0627\u0641\u0638\u0629 \u0643\u0631\u0628\u0644\u0627\u0621 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 <\/strong>2020\/5\/8)) \u0648\u0644\u063a\u0627\u064a\u0629 <\/strong>2020\/7\/17)) \u0623\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0645\u0644\u062a \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0628\u064a\u0632 \u0648\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0647\u0631\u0645\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0638\u0644 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0631\u0648\u0628\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 (\u0645\u0631\u0636\u0649 \u0641\u0627\u064a\u0631\u0648\u0633 \u0643\u0631\u0648\u0646\u0627)\u060c \u0623\u0641\u0636\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0645\u0644\u0629<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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