{"id":29016,"date":"2023-07-23T11:57:19","date_gmt":"2023-07-23T08:57:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/business.uokerbala.edu.iq\/wp\/?page_id=29016"},"modified":"2023-07-23T11:57:20","modified_gmt":"2023-07-23T08:57:20","slug":"%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%aa%d8%b9%d9%85%d8%a7%d9%84-%d8%a8%d8%b9%d8%b6-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b7%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%a6%d9%82-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b7%d9%8a%d9%81%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d9%84%d8%aa%d8%ad%d9%84%d9%8a%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/business.uokerbala.edu.iq\/wp\/%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%aa%d8%b9%d9%85%d8%a7%d9%84-%d8%a8%d8%b9%d8%b6-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b7%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%a6%d9%82-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b7%d9%8a%d9%81%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d9%84%d8%aa%d8%ad%d9%84%d9%8a%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84","title":{"rendered":"\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0628\u0639\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u0643\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0635\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0639 \u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0628\u0639\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u0643\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0635\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0639 \u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0631\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0649<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0645\u062c\u0644\u0633 \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f  \u0641\u064a \u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0643\u0631\u0628\u0644\u0627\u0621 \u0648 \u0647\u064a \u062c\u0632\u0621 \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u062a\u0637\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0646\u064a\u0644 \u0634\u0647\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062c\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u062a\u0642\u062f\u0645 \u0628\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u0628\u0625\u0634\u0631\u0627\u0641<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0623.\u0645.\u062f. \u0623\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0633 \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0641\u0638 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062e\u0644\u0635<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0628\u0639\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0646\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0645\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0636 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629  \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 ( Power Spectrum Density ) \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0648 \u0645\u0646 \u062b\u0645 \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 ( PSD ) \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0639\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642 \u062a\u0639\u0648\u064a\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0628\u062f\u0644\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u062c\u0628\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0642\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0644\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0645\u0644\u062a \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u062a\u0627\u0646 \u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062b\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0627\u0626\u0639\u0629 \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a (AR) \u2013 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0648\u0633\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 (MA)  ( \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0637 ARMA ) \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0638\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u064a\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0643\u062b\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u064a\u0641 \u0648\u0641\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629 \u0628\u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0648\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0638\u0645 \u0648\u0641\u0642\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0632\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a \u0648\u062f\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0647 \u0639\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0645\u062d\u0627\u0643\u0627\u0629 \u0645\u0648\u0646\u062a \u0643\u0627\u0631\u0644\u0648 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c)   Matlab R 2015 a) \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0623\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0644\u062d\u062c\u0648\u0645 \u0639\u064a\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0629 ( \u0635\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u2013 \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u0629 \u2013 \u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631\u0629 ) \u0648 \u0623\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0631\u062f\u062f \u0648 \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0632\u064a\u0639 \u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0647\u062f\u0641 \u0645\u0646\u0647 \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0627\u064a\u064a\u0633 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0645\u0639\u064a\u0627\u0631\u064a \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0623 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0637\u0644\u0642  MAPE (Mean Absuolte percentage error) \u0648\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0623 (Mean square error) \u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0638\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0632\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a \u0627\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0638\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0631\u064a\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0644\u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u062d\u062c\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0644\u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639 \u0642\u064a\u0645 ( ) \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0628\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u060c \u0648\u0643\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0644\u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639 \u0642\u064a\u0645 (Wi) \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u0642\u062f \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0646 \u0648\u0632\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0631\u0627\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0627\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u2013 \u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0631\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0648\u064a\u0629<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013  \u0634\u0628\u0643\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0631\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0627\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0648\u0627\u0645 ( 2022 – 2016 ) \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0633\u0631\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u062d \u0641\u064a \u0645\u062d\u0627\u0641\u0638\u0629 \u0628\u063a\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0628\u062d\u062c\u0645 (84) \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0647\u062f\u0629  \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0643\u064a\u0644\u0648\u0645\u062a\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0639\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u0645 \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0627\u0626\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c ARMA(1, 1)  \u0648\u0628\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u062a\u064a\u0646 \u062a\u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0638\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0632\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0647\u064a \u0627\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0638\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0631\u064a\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0643\u0644 \u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631\u062f\u062f W \u0648\u0646\u0644\u062d\u0638 \u0627\u064a\u0636\u0627 \u0643\u0644\u0645\u0627 \u0632\u0627\u062f\u062a \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 W \u0642\u0644 \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0623 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0637\u0644\u0642 \u0648\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0623.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n
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