A master’s thesis submitted to
The Council of the College of Administration and Economics at the University of Karbala which is part of the requirements for obtaining a master’s degree in economic sciences.
By the student
Moneim Hassan Ali Al-Fatlawi
supervised by
Prof. Dr. Munadhil Abbas Hussein Al-Jowari
Abstract:
This research aims to measure and analyze the relationship between public debt and foreign trade in a sample of countries, namely Algeria, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iraq, for the period (2004-2020) and by using a number of modern standard tests and estimates such as the vector autoregressive (VAR) and theautoregressive distributed time gap model ( ARDL), Error Correction Model (VECM), Decomposition Variation, Immediate Response Pulses (IRF), Co-integration, and others. Also in the short term, as the value of the marginal parameter reached (0.007), while in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia it became clear that there is an inverse relationship between exports and internal public debt, as the marginal parameter reached (-0.43) as estimated by (ARDL) and that the relationship is also inverse in the short and long term. In Iraq, there is a negative relationship between imports and the total debt lagging in time for one year, while the relationship was positive for the total debt in the second and fourth years lagging in time using the estimation (VAR), and the relationship does not take place in the presence of cointegration , while the kinetic analysis of the model indicated – segmentation of variance – That the total debt affects Iraq’s imports in small proportions, which ranged between (1.12%- 4.4 %and that the standard analysis supports the research hypothesis that there is no general trend for the relationship between foreign trade and public debt.
