The global economy and the soft landing
A.M.Dr. Sultan Jassim al-Nasrawi

Over the past four years, the global economy has witnessed successive transformations and upheavals, starting from the coronavirus to the Russian-Ukrainian war and its geopolitical repercussions and the state of economic-geographical fragmentation, in addition to the continuing and worsening implications of the climate crisis. Statistics indicate that these successive shocks since 2020 have led to a decrease in global output of approximately 3.7 trillion dollars.

In connection with these repercussions, economic growth witnessed a sharp fluctuation, as it declined in 2020, reflecting the consequences of the Krona pandemic and the uncertainty surrounding the global economy. As soon as growth rates began to recover gradually, the economy again lost momentum due to the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

The global economy continues its slow recovery (economic growth is still slow and unbalanced) from the impact of the repercussions imposed by the pandemic and the war despite the disruption of energy markets, inflation, the food security crisis, and rising commodity prices.

According to IMF forecasts, global economic growth is expected to slow to 3% in 2023 compared to 3.5% in 2022. Then, it may reach about 2.9% in 2024, marking a significant decline from the historical average (2000-2019) of 3.8%. Growth in advanced economies is expected to slow down from 2.6% in 2022 to 1.5% in 2023. Then 1.4% in 2024 as signs of the painful impact of tightening monetary policies begin to appear, and emerging market and developing economies are expected to register a limited decline in growth rates from 4.1% in 2022 to 4.0% in 2023 and 2024 as a result of the worsening real estate sector crisis in China[1].
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