A thesis Submitted to The Council of the College of Administration and Economics -University of Karbala, as part of the requirements for obtaining a PhD in Economic Sciences

by:

Abbas Jawad Ahmed Kishmish

Supervised by: 

Prof. Dr. Hashim Marzoog Ali Al-Shammari

This research addresses understanding both public spending policies and their economic effects, exploring the role of public spending policies in addressing economic problems and crises, and clarifying the fragility of public finances, its causes, indicators, and ways to address and mitigate it. It also analyzes the development of public spending, both current and investment, in Iraq, and the development of indicators of public finance fragility in Iraq during the period 2003-2023. The hypothesis is that the Iraqi financial system, being a rentier economy, suffers from chronic structural imbalances aggravated by the excessive reliance on oil revenues and their fluctuations. …

The study aims to clarify the nature of public spending (whether consumption or investment) and its role in the trajectory of public financial fragility. To achieve this goal, consumption expenditure and investment expenditure were identified as the main independent variables, while financial fragility was measured using a set of macroeconomic indicators, including: the ratio of public debt to GDP, the ratio of budget deficit to GDP, the ratio of oil revenues to total revenues, and the ratio of public expenditure to GDP. Modern standard models (the Autoregressive Distributed Lag – ARDL model) were employed to test the relationship between the variables in both the short and long term. The results concluded that the effects of public consumption and investment expenditure on public financial fragility indicators vary.

The research concluded with a set of findings and recommendations, including that the current structure of public spending in Iraq, which is heavily skewed towards the consumption side, does not promote GDP growth and relies on exhausted revenue sources, thereby increasing the fragility of public finances. Under the current circumstances, Iraq needs radical reforms in public expenditure management to ensure a more efficient use of resources and achieve the desired economic and social objectives. 

Keywords: public spending, fragility of public finances, Iraqi economy

A thesis Submitted to The Council of the College of Administration and Economics -University of Karbala, as part of the requirements for obtaining a PhD in Economic Sciences

by:

Abbas Jawad Ahmed Kishmish

Supervised by: 

Prof. Dr. Hashim Marzoog Ali Al-Shammari

This research addresses understanding both public spending policies and their economic effects, exploring the role of public spending policies in addressing economic problems and crises, and clarifying the fragility of public finances, its causes, indicators, and ways to address and mitigate it. It also analyzes the development of public spending, both current and investment, in Iraq, and the development of indicators of public finance fragility in Iraq during the period 2003-2023. The hypothesis is that the Iraqi financial system, being a rentier economy, suffers from chronic structural imbalances aggravated by the excessive reliance on oil revenues and their fluctuations. …

The study aims to clarify the nature of public spending (whether consumption or investment) and its role in the trajectory of public financial fragility. To achieve this goal, consumption expenditure and investment expenditure were identified as the main independent variables, while financial fragility was measured using a set of macroeconomic indicators, including: the ratio of public debt to GDP, the ratio of budget deficit to GDP, the ratio of oil revenues to total revenues, and the ratio of public expenditure to GDP. Modern standard models (the Autoregressive Distributed Lag – ARDL model) were employed to test the relationship between the variables in both the short and long term. The results concluded that the effects of public consumption and investment expenditure on public financial fragility indicators vary.

The research concluded with a set of findings and recommendations, including that the current structure of public spending in Iraq, which is heavily skewed towards the consumption side, does not promote GDP growth and relies on exhausted revenue sources, thereby increasing the fragility of public finances. Under the current circumstances, Iraq needs radical reforms in public expenditure management to ensure a more efficient use of resources and achieve the desired economic and social objectives. 

Keywords: public spending, fragility of public finances, Iraqi economy